Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and management science. Previous methods rely on a known structural causal model (SCM) or assume the homogeneity of the exogenous variable and strict monotonicity between the outcome and exogenous variable. In this paper, we propose a principled approach for identifying and estimating the counterfactual outcome. We first introduce a simple and intuitive rank preservation assumption to identify the counterfactual outcome without relying on a known structural causal model. Building on this, we propose a novel ideal loss for theoretically unbiased learning of the counterfactual outcome and further develop a kernel-based estimator for its empirical estimation. Our theoretical analysis shows that the rank preservation assumption is not stronger than the homogeneity and strict monotonicity assumptions, and shows that the proposed ideal loss is convex, and the proposed estimator is unbiased. Extensive semi-synthetic and real-world experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Deep neural networks have been criticized as fundamentally statistical systems that fail to capture causal structure and perform causal reasoning. Here we demonstrate that a GPT-style transformer trained for next-token prediction can simultaneously discover instances of linear Gaussian structural causal models (SCMs) and learn to answer counterfactual queries about those SCMs. First, we show that the network generalizes to counterfactual queries about SCMs for which it has seen interventional data but not any examples of counterfactual inference. The network must, thus, have successfully composed discovered causal structures with a learned counterfactual inference algorithm. Second, we decode the implicit "mental" SCM from the network's residual stream activations and manipulate it using gradient descent with predictable effects on the network's output. Our results suggest that statistical prediction may be sufficient to drive the emergence of internal causal models and causal inference capacities in deep neural networks.

Generative AI has revolutionised visual content editing, empowering users to effortlessly modify images and videos. However, not all edits are equal. To perform realistic edits in domains such as natural image or medical imaging, modifications must respect causal relationships inherent to the data generation process.

Markovprocesses mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon intervention, but do not support counterfactual inference.

For instance, one such notion is'unawareness', which necessitates Additionally, preference-based fairness argues that an algorithm's design should not be solely determined by its creators or regulators but should also incorporate the preferences of those directly A myriad of techniques exist to construct fair models using counterfactual inference. Theorem 2. Assume that R has been generated using Algorithm 2. We have, Pr(R We consider a causal graph shown in Figure 6. The counterfactual data ˇ X were computed by substituting A in the structural function with ˇ A . We implemented our method and the baseline methods as described in Section 5 (since there is no difference between observed data and factual data in this scenario, we have no ICA baseline here). For the CR method, we set the weight of the fairness regularization term as 0.05.

This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon intervention, but do not support counterfactual inference. In contrast, structural causal models support counterfactual inference, but do not identify the mechanisms.

Audio-based depression detection models have demonstrated promising performance but often suffer from gender bias due to imbalanced training data. Epidemiological statistics show a higher prevalence of depression in females, leading models to learn spurious correlations between gender and depression. Consequently, models tend to over-diagnose female patients while underperforming on male patients, raising significant fairness concerns. To address this, we propose a novel Counterfactual Debiasing Framework grounded in causal inference. We construct a causal graph to model the decision-making process and identify gender bias as the direct causal effect of gender on the prediction. During inference, we employ counterfactual inference to estimate and subtract this direct effect, ensuring the model relies primarily on authentic acoustic pathological features. Extensive experiments on the DAIC-WOZ dataset using two advanced acoustic backbones demonstrate that our framework not only significantly reduces gender bias but also improves overall detection performance compared to existing debiasing strategies.

This work addresses the problem of constructing reliable prediction intervals for individual counterfactual outcomes. Existing conformal counterfactual inference (CCI) methods provide marginal coverage guarantees but often produce overly conservative intervals, particularly under treatment imbalance when counterfactual samples are scarce. We introduce synthetic data-powered CCI (SP-CCI), a new framework that augments the calibration set with synthetic counterfactual labels generated by a pre-trained counterfactual model. To ensure validity, SP-CCI incorporates synthetic samples into a conformal calibration procedure based on risk-controlling prediction sets (RCPS) with a debiasing step informed by prediction-powered inference (PPI). We prove that SP-CCI achieves tighter prediction intervals while preserving marginal coverage, with theoretical guarantees under both exact and approximate importance weighting. Empirical results on different datasets confirm that SP-CCI consistently reduces interval width compared to standard CCI across all settings.

Most counterfactual inference frameworks traditionally assume acyclic structural causal models (SCMs), i.e. directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, many real-world systems (e.g. biological systems) contain feedback loops or cyclic dependencies that violate acyclicity. In this work, we study counterfactual inference in cyclic SCMs under shift-scale interventions, i.e., soft, policy-style changes that rescale and/or shift a variable's mechanism.